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科学美国人60秒双语科学新闻健康篇:利用网络搜索预测流感爆发季

Lily85 于2013-04-06发布 l 已有人浏览
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我这周大部分时间都在感冒中度过。我听说今年流感季来得比较早,但我没料到会如此早,部分原因在于对流感爆发的预测还不是很精确——尤其是在像纽约这种病菌泛滥的地
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I've spent most of the week with the flu. I'd heard flu season was starting early this year, but I wasn't prepared for it to be this early, in part because predictions for flu outbreaks are still not that precise—especially in germy places like here in New York City.
我这周大部分时间都在感冒中度过。我听说今年流感季来得比较早,但我没料到会如此早,部分原因在于对流感爆发的预测还不是很精确——尤其是在像纽约这种病菌泛滥的地方。

But a new approach, borrowing real-time analysis techniques from the latest weather prediction models, might be able to forecast the next flu season.
但是有一种新方法,即借鉴最新天气预报模型的实时分析技术,也许能够预测到下一个流感季。

Weather modeling draws on current conditions and filters to make predictions. Now that we're all Googling flu-related queries when we get sick, real-time influenza infection rates are available online. Epidemiologists can feed this info into models like the ones used for weather that can sort through the chaos to predict sickness or health.
天气预报建模采集当前的天气状况,过滤信息进行预测。既然我们感冒时都在用谷歌搜素流感相关的信息,那么网上应该能统计到流感感染率。流行病学家再将这些信息组建成模型,像天气预报那样整理好混乱的信息,然后进行预测。

Researchers tested the flu formula against data from five actual recent flu seasons in New York City. Given online flu search information, they were able to predict the peak of the outbreak in the city nearly two months in advance. The findings are in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
研究人员针对纽约市最近五个流感季的数据,用流感公式进行了测试,他们能够提前两个月预测出流感爆发的高峰期。这项研究刊登在美国《国家科学院院刊》上。

Now, I would love a prediction of when I'm going to be fully recovered.
现在,我希望能预测到我什么时候能完全康复。

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