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The Economist -- <<经济学人>>杂志 2008年4月12日

The Economist -- <<经济学人>>杂志 2008年4月12日

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[简介]The great American slowdown--- 封面故事:

AMERICANS are unaccustomed to recessions, particularly ones that involve shopping less. During the
past quarter-century, the world's most powerful economy has suffered only two official downturns, in
1990-91 and 2001. Both were short and shallow. In 2001 consumer spending barely skipped a beat; a
decade earlier it fell, but only briefly. Buoyed by rising asset prices and financial innovations that allowed
ever more people to tap ever more debt, the collective American wallet has not snapped shut in almost
two decades.
That may be about to change. Evidence is mounting that the economy has slipped into recession—and
this time consumer weakness is to the fore (see article). The doughty American shopper is being
pummelled by four things: the housing bust, the credit crunch, higher fuel and food costs and, most
recently, a weakening labour market. The unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in March, while the private
sector lost jobs for the fourth month in a row. Feeling poorer and with fewer people prepared to lend
them money, consumers are cutting back: witness the slump in car sales. And seeing that consumer
spending accounts for 70% of American demand, that hurts, especially when it is coupled with a collapse
in the once mighty construction industry. The IMF now officially predicts an American recession in 2008;
many at the Federal Reserve think output is contracting.