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Ted演讲:解决全球变暖的100种方法

zlxxm 于2019-12-24发布 l 已有人浏览
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递减减排是思考和应对全球变暖的一种新思路。这是一个目标,通向我们想要的未来,一个有可能逆转全球变暖的未来。
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Chad Frischmann: 100 solutions to reverse global warming

解决全球变暖的100种方法

Hello. I'd like to introduce you to a word you may never have heard before, but you ought to know: drawdown. Drawdown is a new way of thinking about and acting on global warming. It's a goal for a future that we want, a future where reversing global warming is possible. Drawdown is that point in time when atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases begin to decline on a year-to-year basis. More simply, it's that point when we take out more greenhouse gases than we put into Earth's atmosphere.

你们好!我想向你们介绍一个你们过去可能从未听过,但应该知道的词语:递减减排。递减减排是思考和应对全球变暖的一种新思路。这是一个目标,通向我们想要的未来,一个有可能逆转全球变暖的未来。递减减排是大气层中温室气体开始逐年下降的那个时间点。简单来说,是那个我们从大气层中除去的温室气体大于我们排入的节点。

Now, I know we're all concerned about climate change, but climate change is not the problem. Climate change is the expression of the problem. It's the feedback of the system of the planet telling us what's going on. The problem is global warming, provoked by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases caused by human activity.

如今,我知道我们都担忧气候变化,但气候变化本身不是问题。气候变化是问题的表象。这是地球生态告诉我们正在发生什么的信号。真正的问题是全球变暖,是来自温室气体浓度的增加,这都来自人类的行为。

So how do we solve the problem? How do we begin the process of reversing global warming? The only way we know how is to draw down, to avoid putting greenhouse gases up and to pull down what's already there. I know. Given the current situation, it sounds impossible, but humanity already knows what to do. We have real, workable technologies and practices that can achieve drawdown. And it's already happening. What we need is to accelerate implementation and to change the discourse from one of fear and confusion, which only leads to apathy, to one of understanding and possibility, and, therefore, opportunity.

那么我们如何解决这个问题?我们如何开始逆转全球变暖?我们知道的唯一方法是递减减排,避免排放温室气体并把已经存在的温室气体降下来。我知道。鉴于目前形势,这听起来不可能,但人类已经知道该怎么做了。我们有真正,可行的技术和实践可以实现递减减排。并且这已经在发生了。我们需要的是加速实施,并把话语权从只会导致冷漠的恐惧和混乱中解放出来,达到一种理解和可能,进而抓住机遇。

I work for an organization called Project Drawdown. And for the last four years, together with a team of researchers and writers from all over the world, we have mapped, measured and detailed 100 solutions to reversing global warming. Eighty already exist today, and when taken together, those 80 can achieve drawdown. And 20 are coming attractions, solutions on the pipeline, and when they come online, will speed up our progress. These are solutions that are viable, scalable and financially feasible. And they do one or more of three things: replace existing fossil fuel-based energy generation with clean, renewable sources; reduce consumption through technological efficiency and behavior change; and to biosequester carbon in our plants' biomass and soil through a process we all learn in grade school, the magic of photosynthesis.

我为一个叫“递减减排项目”的组织工作。在过去4年中,与来自全球各地的研究者和作家团队一起,我们已经绘制,测量和详细制定了100种扭逆转全球变暖的解决方案。其中80种已存在于生活中,当一起实施时,这80个方案就可以实现减排。还有20个方案即将推出,或在酝酿中,当它们上线时,会加快我们的进程。这些解决方案是可行的、可扩展的、经济上允许的。它们能做下面三件事情中的一件或多件:用清洁、可再生的能源取代现有的化石燃料发电;通过技术效率和行为改变降低消耗;通过我们在小学里学到的光合作用的魔力,将碳封存在我们植物的生物量和土壤中。

It's through a combination of these three mechanisms that drawdown becomes possible. So how do we get there? Well, here's the short answer. This is a list of the top 20 solutions to reversing global warming. Now, I'll go into some detail, but take a few seconds to look over the list. It's eclectic, I know, from onshore wind turbines to educating girls, from plant-rich diets to rooftop solar technology. So let's break it down a little bit. To the right of the slide, you'll see figures in gigatons, or billions of tons. That represents the total equivalent carbon dioxide reduced from the atmosphere when the solution is implemented globally over a 30-year period. Now, when we think about climate solutions, we often think about electricity generation. We think of renewable energy as the most important set of solutions, and they are incredibly important. But the first thing to notice about this list is that only five of the top 20 solutions relate to electricity. What surprised us, honestly, was that eight of the top 20 relate to the food system. The climate impact of food may come as a surprise to many people, but what these results show is that the decisions we make every day about the food we produce, purchase and consume are perhaps the most important contributions every individual can make to reversing global warming. And how we manage land is also very important. Protecting forests and wetlands safeguards, expands and creates new carbon sinks that directly draw down carbon. This is how drawdown can happen. And when we take food and land management together, 12 of the top 20 solutions relate to how and why we use land. This fundamentally shifts traditional thinking on climate solutions. But let's go to the top of the list, because I think what's there may also surprise you. The single most impactful solution, according to this analysis, would be refrigeration management, or properly managing and disposing of hydrofluorocarbons, also known as HFCs, which are used by refrigerators and air conditioners to cool the air. We did a great job with the Montreal Protocol to limit the production of chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs, because of their effect on the ozone layer. But they were replaced by HFCs, which are hundreds to thousands of times more potent a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. And that 90 gigatons reduced is a conservative figure. If we were to account for the impact of the Kigali agreement of 2016, which calls for the phaseout of hydrofluorocarbons and replace them with natural refrigerants, which exist today, this number could increase to 120, to nearly 200 gigatons of avoided greenhouse gases. Maybe you're surprised, as we were.

这三种机制的结合使得递减减排成为可能。那么我们如何实现?这里有份简短的答案。这是逆转全球变暖的20大解决方案清单。现在,我将详细介绍一下,但请花几秒钟看看这份清单。这上面什么都有,我知道,从陆上风力涡轮机到女性教育,从植物为主的饮食到屋顶太阳能技术。我们把它们分解一下。在幻灯片的右边,你会看到以10亿为单位的数字。或者10亿吨。这代表大气层中减少的二氧化碳总量若这些解决方案在全球部署超过30年。如今,当我们想到气候解决方案,我们常常想到发电问题。我们认为可再生能源是最重要的解决方案,它们的确非常重要。但在这份清单中需要注意的首要事情是前20个解决方案中只有5个跟电力有关。老实说,让我们吃惊的是,20大解决方案中有8个跟食物系统有关。食物对气候的影响可能出乎多数人预料,但这些结果显示我们每天在生产,购买和消费什么食物上的决定可能是个人可以对扭转全球变暖能做的最重要贡献。我们如何管理土地也非常重要。保护森林和湿地,扩大和创造新的碳吸存(碳汇)可以直接减少碳。这就是递减减排可以发生的方式。当我们把食物和土地管理放一起时,前20大解决方案中有12个跟我们如何和为什么使用土地有关。这根本上逆转了对气候解决方案的传统思考。但让我们回到清单的顶部,因为我觉得这些会让你们感到惊讶。根据分析,最有影响力的解决方案是制冷管理,也就是妥善管理、处理氢氟烃(HFCs),冰箱和空调用其冷却空气。我们在《蒙特利尔议定书》上做得很好,限制了氯氟烃(CFCs)的生产,因为它们对臭氧层的影响。但是它们被HFCs取代了,其温室气体的强度是二氧化碳的几十万倍。减少900亿吨都是保守数字。如果我们考虑进2016年《基加利协议》的影响,这个协议要求逐步淘汰氢氟碳化合物,以目前存在的天然制冷剂取代之,这个数字可能会增加1200亿吨,总共减少温室气体排放接近2000亿吨。可能你被惊讶到了,就如我们过去一样。

Now, before going into some details of specific solutions, you may be wondering how we came to these calculations. Well, first of all, we collected a lot of data, and we used statistical analysis to create ranges that allow us to choose reasonable choices for every input used throughout the models. And we chose a conservative approach, which underlies the entire project. All that data is entered in the model, ambitiously but plausibly projected into the future, and compared against what we would have to do anyway. The 84 gigatons reduced from onshore wind turbines, for example, results from the electricity generated from wind farms that would otherwise be produced from coal or gas-fired plants. We calculate all the costs to build and to operate the plants and all the emissions generated. The same process is used to compare recycling versus landfilling, regenerative versus industrial agriculture, protecting versus cutting down our forests. The results are then integrated within and across systems to avoid double-counting and add it up to see if we actually get to drawdown.

现在,在看具体解决方案的细节前,你可能好奇我们是怎么算出这些数字的。首先,我们收集了大量的数据,我们使用统计分析来创建范围,使我们能够为整个模型中的每个输入选择合理的选项。我们选择了保守的方法,这是整个项目的基础。那些数据进入模型,大胆但合理地预测未来,并与我们之前要做的对比。例如,使用陆上风力涡轮机所减少的840亿吨,是因为用风力发电厂发电,这些电先前由燃煤或燃气发电产生。我们计算建造和运营这些工厂的所有成本,以及所有产生的排放。同样的过程被用来比较回收和填埋,再生农业与工业化农业,保护与砍伐森林。然后在系统内部和跨系统整合结果,以避免重复计数并把它们加起来看能不能实现减排。

OK, let's go into some specific solutions. Rooftop solar comes in ranked number 10. When we picture rooftop solar in our minds we often envision a warehouse in Miami covered in solar panels. But these are solutions that are relevant in urban and rural settings, high and low-income countries, and they have cascading benefits. This is a family on a straw island in Lake Titicaca receiving their first solar panel. Before, kerosene was used for cooking and lighting, kerosene on a straw island. So by installing solar, this family is not only helping to reduce emissions, but providing safety and security for their household.

好了,让我们看一看具体的解决方案。屋顶太阳能排在第10位。当我们在脑海中想象太阳能屋顶时,我们经常想象一个位于迈阿密的仓库,屋顶覆盖着太阳能电池板。但这些解决方案同样适用于我们的城市和农村环境,高和低收入国家,而且他们具有连锁效应。这是一个在喀喀湖稻草岛上的家庭他们收到的第一块太阳能电池板。以前,稻草岛上人们用煤油来做饭和照明。所以通过安装太阳能,这个家庭不仅减少了排放,而且也为他们的房屋提供了安全保障。

And tropical forests tell their own story. Protecting currently degraded land in the tropics and allowing natural regeneration to occur is the number five solution to reversing global warming. We can think of trees as giant sticks of carbon. This is drawdown in action every year, as carbon is removed from the atmosphere through photosynthesis, which converts carbon dioxide to plants' biomass and soil organic carbon.

热带森林的故事则是另外一番景象。保护热带地区目前退化的土地,允许自然再生是逆转全球变暖的第五个解决方案。我们可以把树林看作巨大的碳棒。碳可以通过光合作用从大气中去除,将二氧化碳转化为植物的生物量和土壤有机碳,碳的消耗每年都在减少。

And we need to rethink how we produce our food to make it more regenerative. There are many ways to do this, and we researched over 13 of them, but these aren't new ways of producing food. They have been practiced for centuries, for generations. But they are increasingly displaced by modern agriculture, which promotes tillage, monocropping and the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides which degrade the land and turn it into a net emitter of greenhouse gases. Regenerative agriculture, on the other hand, restores soil health and productivity, increases yield, improves water retention, benefits smallholder farmers and large farming operations alike and brings carbon back to the land. It's a win-win-win-win-win.

我们需要重新思考我们如何生产食物让它更加“可再生”。有很多方法可以做到这一点,我们研究了其中的13种,这些其实都不是生产食物的新方法。它们已经被实践了几个世纪,几代人。但它们正日益被现代农业取代,现代农业促进了机械耕作、单一作物制,用合成化肥和杀虫剂,从而导致土地退化,并把它变成了温室气体的排放源。在另一方面,可再生农业,恢复土壤健康和生产力,增加粮食产量,提高保水性,使小农和大型农业经营同样受益,并将碳带回土地。这个结果是赢-赢-赢-赢-赢。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

And it's not just how we produce food, but what we consume that has a massive impact on global warming.

对全球变暖的巨大影响不仅与我们如何生产食物有关,还包括我们怎么消费食物。

A plant-rich diet is not a vegan or a vegetarian diet, though I applaud any who make those choices. It's a healthy diet in terms of how much we consume, and particularly how much meat is consumed. In the richer parts of the world, we overconsume. However, low-income countries show an insufficient caloric and protein intake. That needs rebalancing, and it's in the rebalancing that a plant-rich diet becomes the number four solution to reversing global warming.

植物性饮食不是严格素食或素食节食,尽管我赞赏那些做出这些选择的人。就我们的食用量而言,这是一种健康的饮食,尤其在摄入的肉类数量方面。在全球最富裕的地方,我们常常摄入过多。然而,低收入国家则显示热量和蛋白质摄入不足。这需要再平衡,它正在再平衡中。植物性饮食成为逆转全球变暖的第四个解决方案。

Moreover, approximately a third of all food produced is not eaten, and wasted food emits an astounding eight percent of global greenhouse gases. We need to look where across the supply chain these losses and wastage occurs. In low-income countries, after food leaves the farm, most food is wasted early in the supply chain due to infrastructure and storage challenges. Food is not wasted by consumers in low-income countries which struggle to feed their population. In the developed world, instead, after food leaves the farm, most food is wasted at the end of the supply chain by markets and consumers, and wasted food ends up in the landfill where it emits methane as it decomposes. This is a consumer choice problem. It's not a technology issue. Preventing food waste from the beginning is the number three solution. But here's the interesting thing. When we look at the food system as a whole and we implement all the production solutions like regenerative agriculture, and we adopt a plant-rich diet, and we reduce food waste, our research shows that we would produce enough food on current farmland to feed the world's growing population a healthy, nutrient-rich diet now until 2050 and beyond. That means we don't need to cut down forests for food production. The solutions to reversing global warming are the same solutions to food insecurity.

此外,大约1/3被生产的食物没有被吃完,被浪费的食物排放出令人震惊的全球8%的温室气体。我们需要审视整个供应链这些损耗和浪费发生在哪里。在低收入国家,在食物离开农场后,大部分食物浪费在供应链的早期,这归咎于基础设施和存储的不足。挣扎着喂饱其人口的低收入国家:食物不是被消费者浪费的。在发达国家,情况恰恰相反:食物离开农场后,大部分食物被供应链终端的市场和消费者浪费了,浪费的食物被丢进垃圾填埋场,在那里分解时排放出甲烷。这是一个消费者选择问题。这不是技术问题。从一开始就阻止食物浪费是第三个解决方案。但这里有个有趣的事情。当我们把整个食物系统当作整体去看,实施像可再生农业那样的生产解决方案,采取植物性饮食,并减少食物浪费时,我们的研究发现我们可以在现有的农田上生产足够食物提供健康而营养丰富的饮食从现在到2050年及以后喂饱全球不断增长的人口。这意味着我们不需要砍伐森林来生产食物。逆转全球变暖的解决方案也正是保障食品安全的解决方案。

Now, a solution that often does not get talked enough about, family planning. By providing men and women the right to choose when, how and if to raise a family through reproductive health clinics and education, access to contraception and freedom devoid of persecution can reduce the estimated global population by 2050. That reduced population means reduced demand for electricity, food, travel, buildings and all other resources. All the energy and emissions that are used to produce that higher demand is reduced by providing the basic human right to choose when, how and if to raise a family. But family planning cannot happen without equal quality of education to girls currently being denied access. Now, we've taken a small liberty here, because the impact of universal education and family planning resources are so inextricably intertwined that we chose to cut it right down the middle. But taken together, educating girls and family planning is the number one solution to reversing global warming, reducing approximately 120 billion tons of greenhouse gases.

有一个解决方案经常被人们忽视,计划生育。通过为男性和女性提供选择权,来选择何时,如何,是否养育家庭通过建立生殖健康诊所、生殖教育、获得避孕产品和不受迫害的自由,可以减少2050年的预期全球人口。人口的减少意味着对电力,食物,旅行,建筑和其他资源需求的减少。所有来满足原本高需求而生产的能源和排放,因此可以减少,只需提供基本人权,来选择何时,如何及是否养育家庭。但计划生育无法真正实现,若目前无法上学的女孩没有接受同等质量教育的机会。现在,有点冒昧地在这说一下,因为普及教育和计划生育的影响是如此不可分割地交织在一起,以致我们选择将其一分为二。但总的来说,教育女性和计划生育是逆转全球变暖的第一个解决方案,可减少大约1200亿吨温室气体。

So is drawdown possible? The answer is yes, it is possible, but we need all 80 solutions. There are no silver bullets or a subset of solutions that are going to get us there. The top solutions would take us far along the pathway, but there's no such thing as a small solution. We need all 80. But here's the great thing. We would want to implement these solutions whether or not global warming was even a problem, because they have cascading benefits to human and planetary well-being. Renewable electricity results in clean, abundant access to energy for all. A plant-rich diet, reduced food waste results in a healthy global population with enough food and sustenance. Family planning and educating girls? This is about human rights, about gender equality. This is about economic improvement and the freedom of choice. It's about justice. Regenerative agriculture, managed grazing, agroforestry, silvopasture restores soil health, benefits farmers and brings carbon back to the land. Protecting our ecosystems also protects biodiversity and safeguards planetary health and the oxygen that we breathe. Its tangible benefits to all species are incalculable.

所以递减减排是可能的?答案是肯定的,是可能的。但我们需要所有这80个解决方案。没有灵丹妙药或单靠里面几个就能让我们实现那个目标。最靠前的解决方案可以让我们延着这条路走得很远,但没有任何一个解决方案可以被忽略的,我们需要所有的80个。但有件事很棒。我们需要实施的这些解决方案,不管全球变暖是不是个问题,因为它们对人类和地球的福祉有连锁反应。可再生电力为所有人提供了清洁、丰富的能源。植物性饮食,减少食物浪费带来有足够食物和营养的全球健康人口。计划生育和女性教育?这跟人权有关,跟性别平等有关。这是事关经济改善和选择自由。这事关公正。再生农业,管理放牧,农林复合,森林保护恢复土壤健康,造福农民并把碳带回土地。保护我们的生态系统也就保护了生物多样性和保护了地球健康以及我们所呼吸的空气。它对所有物种的有形利益是不可估量的。

But one last point, because I know it's probably on everybody's mind; how much is this going to cost? Well, we estimate that to implement all 80 solutions would cost about 29 trillion dollars over 30 years. That's just about a trillion a year. Now, I know that sounds like a lot, but we have to remember that global GDP is over 80 trillion every year, and the estimated savings from implementing these solutions is 74 trillion dollars, over double the costs. That's a net savings of 44 trillion dollars.

但最后一点,因为我知道大家可能都在想这需要花费多少成本?我们估算实施所有80个解决方案需要在30年中花费29万亿美元。每年只需要1万亿美元。我知道这个数字听起来很大,但我们需要记得全球每年的GDP超过80万亿美元,并且实施这些解决方案带来的估计节省是74万亿美元,是成本的两倍多。净节省44万亿美元。

So drawdown is possible. We can do it if we want to. It's not going to cost that much, and the return on that investment is huge.

所以递减减排是可行的。只要我们想做就能做到。不需要花费那么高的成本,投资的回报确是巨大的。

Here's the welcome surprise. When we implement these solutions, we shift the way we do business from a system that is inherently exploitative and extractive to a new normal that is by nature restorative and regenerative. We need to rethink our global goals, to move beyond sustainability towards regeneration, and along the way reverse global warming.

这是一个受欢迎的惊喜。当我们实施这些解决方案,我们把做生意的方式从一个本质上是剥削和榨取的系统转移到一个新的天然的具有恢复性和可再生新常态系统。我们需要重新思考我们的全球目标,去超越可持续性,走向再生,并在此过程中逆转全球变暖。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

(掌声)

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